No short term fixes….
Jobs… jobs… jobs…
Like everyone else I watched Obama’s speech to the full Congress, addressing an issue that is pivotal for he future of our nation – jobs.
In today’s New York Times, columnist Tom Friedman make the case that the need for jobs transcends conventional politics, and Republicans and Democrats both agree that a 9.1% unemployment rate is simply intollerable and that a solution must be found.
But things have gotten so bad that now even conservative bankers on Wall Street have taken to quoting Karl Marx on the inherent institutional flaws of Capitalism.
The problem with the hard core (and probably increasing) levels of unemployment are not a short-term response to the housing bubble (thought some is) but to a far greater extent, it’s a response to a quantum shift in the technological basis of the economy.
That is: The Internet.
The Post Office, for example, is apparently bankrupt. The reason is that the Internet means that most mail is now email. (When was the last time you went to the post office to buy a roll of stamps?). Mail tonnage is down 22% from 2006 and will probably never recover. If anything, this trend will accelerate. Yesterday we received a massive catalogue from Restoration Hardware – a hundred or more glossy printed pages through the post. We both looked at each other: “What a waste” and then promptly threw it in the trash. Soon they will stop printing and mailing those as well.
And of course, the Post Office is only the tip of the iceberg. Go look for Tower Records where we used to buy CDs, or Blockbuster (are they still in business)? Yesterday I bought tea from France, Dolly Mix candies from England and disposable wooden chopsticks (packets of 40) from Amazon – all without needing a store.
And again, we are just at the beginning.
We all like the web. We all like technology – but technology has terrible consequences for employment.
Craigslist, which obviated classified ads and put most newspapers at risk probably made 20,000 jobs across the country obsolete. Craigslist employs 20 people.
And again, we are only at the very beginning of this ‘revolution’.
Revolutions are glorious only in retrospect. For those who live through them they are very messy affairs.
This one is no different.
So the question arises – how do you protect yourself from becoming the next victim of the Internet Revolution?
One thing you can do is to take a look at the technology, which is inescapable, and get on the right side of history.
So, here is my thinking:
One of the biggest trends we are seeing now is a migration to screens.
Computer screens, iPhones, iPads and TV sets which will soon carry both cable and Internet interchangeably.
The average American today spends 8.5 hours a day staring at screens. (5.5 at TV screens, the rest divided amongst computers, phones and tablets)
This number will also continue to rise.
I don’t want to get into what kind of culture we will soon be if all we do is stare at screens. We will save that for another day. Right now we are talking about saving your job.
Screens, almost by definition, require video.
They are the natural platform for video.
They call for video.
In the next few years you are going to see magazines, newspapers, bookstores, even your local pizza place migrate to what we might call Screenworld.
All of those businesses are going to need video – and lots of it – and cheaply produced.
Where is it going to come from?
Who is going to make it?
It should be you.
This is a burgeoning business, just getting started, but my guess is that this is going to be THE growth business of the next decade. Today, the sources for quality video are few- the remnants of those who were in the business before – but they have big budgets and big overheads. The future will belong to those who can provide volumes of content at much lower prices. But then again, the costs have dropped as well – so long as you do this with your digital camera and laptop.
So let’s start getting aggressive about owning the future.
Friday, I offered some advice on how to make a pitch.
This week we’re going to talk about what to do once you get your 10 minutes.
I think this is critically important stuff now.
