Sir Richard Arkwright – note stockings…
I am endlessly mesmerized by Britain.
Here is a country that was, for most of its history, rather ordinary.
Then, suddenly, in the middle of the 18th Century it undergoes a fantastic transformation.
It embraces and becomes the very cutting edge of the Industrial Revolution.
Before anyone else, Britain takes to machinery and steam engines and creates an entirely new economy and a whole new society.
The embrace this with a vengance, and in very short order, Britain is not only the wealthiest and most powerful nation on earth, it is also the wealthiest and most powerful nation in the history of the world. No one before or since will begin to touch what this little Island has achieved.
For nearly 300 years, Britain will rule 25% of the planet.
Then, nearly just as quickly, it will all come to an end.
Remarkable story.
And buried in that story are some very important lessons for those of us watching the digital/video/internet revolution.
Pictured above is Richard Arkwright. He is generally considered to be the ‘father of the Industrial Revolution’. His several inventions married steam power to the manufacture of cloth and so changed the world.
Prior to Arkwright, a pair of stockings (which were quite popular to wear) were made by hand. It was a long and laborious process. And it required a fair degree of skill. Most stockings were made in people’s homes and it could take weeks if not months to stitch a good pair of stockings together. Thus they were extremely expensive. An average person might own but one pair in a lifetime. By the same token, those skilled craftsmen who could make those stockings could charge a fair amount for a pair.
One of Arkwright’s first machines made stockings. Lots of them. And quickly. An Arkwright knitting machine could make about a dozen pair of stockings in a hour.
This was a far cry from one pair made by hand over many weeks.
So the cost of a pair of stockings collapsed.
And the number of stockings in circulation exploded.
And the amount of money that a hand stocking maker could earn collapsed.
Now, we come to video and television.
It used to be that making video and television was both expensive and complicated. Making a show could take months, and required the work of many skilled craftsmen who got paid a lot of money for their skills and time.
Then, along comes another technological breakthrough – the web and FCP and cheap video cameras. And you know what? The cost of making video and television collapses.
And, as with stockings, the number of videos in circulation explodes.
At last count there were more than 28 billion videos on the web.
That is a lot of videos
And almost all of them were made by people on their own – not the product of long and laborious professional crews and producers.
And, as it become apparent that making TV is no longer the ‘craft’ it used to be, the amount of money that any ‘craftsman’ can charge for making video will also collapse.
This is inevitable.
It may be unpleasant for those who used to make their living knitting stockings by hand.
It may be unpleasant for those who used to make their living crafting ‘fine TV’ by hand.
But it is an inevitable consequence of technology.
Now, in the long run, Britain became far richer – far richer – for its embrace of industrial technology and mass production.
The stocking weavers may have been wiped out, but whole new industries were created and the general population did far better than they had before.
The whole class of ‘craft video makers’ is probably going to follow the same fate – through no one’s fault.
But overall, the industry – the making of video and distribution of video – is going to be thousands of times greater than it was when it was a ‘craft’.
The trick for those who are in the business now, will be to position themselves for the future – as opposed to the past.
9 Comments
Nino November 11, 2010
Michael, considering that you are not going to answer my questions:
“What make you think that they are going to need videos, or better yet what’s going to happen in the next eight years that hasn’t happen in the last eight year.
Eight years ago you predicted that in the next five years there will be an explosion of demand for videos on the web and a fortune to be made for those who will be ready.
Those five years came and went and nothing happened, eight years went by and still nothing happened. The only fortune made was yours from those who paid you for be ready to make the fortune based on your predictions, so here we go again, more predictions.
If the public hasn’t been watching those cheap videos until now, like it happen to Current TV or CitizeNews, what makes you think that they will watch it in the future.”
Let me help you. You are right about one thing, there will be programs created exclusively for the web, but you and you VJs ain’t gona do it.
“AOL is also keying in on what it sees as a lack of quality programming produced directly for the Internet.
“Until now, there’s been a gap in the online video consumer experience between user generated video and the high production values of TV and film, said AOL chief executive Tim Armstrong. “In joining with Vuguru and other premier studios and production companies, AOL is uniquely able to bridge that gap by bringing top quality, original video to the millions of users who come to our site each day.”
You can find the entire release here:
http://www.bizjournals.com/washington/news/2010/11/11/former-disney-boss-eisner-teams-with-aol.html
But I’m sure you know about it already, it’s just not very productive to talk about it.
Brendon November 09, 2010
I’ve always thought comparing pre-industrial revolution products such as stockings to online videos was a bit odd. One product is tangible the other intangible.
So why the comparison? A pair of stockings is 10 times more useful than any video I’ve seen online lately.
About 18 months ago the station in which I work for fired all the editors and made all the reporters and anchors MMJs (multi-media journalist a.k.a. VJ) Has the quality improved? Nope. Do the reporters tell better stories now that they have more control over them? Sometimes, but for every one reporter that gets it right, there are 5 or 6 that simply “mail it home”.
This was not done to make to improve our on-air product. This was just another cost-cutting measure. Big deal. I get it.
As far as making money in this field is concerned, either one will make a VJ salary at 30k or less or the big bucks like Nino and crew. As a PA/Chyron Operator/TD (button pusher for now)/Hand-held camera operator and occasional editor when the EP is desperate, I make just as much money as one of our Associate Producers do. Why jump ship?
Mike don’t get me wrong, I’ve always enjoyed reading the blog and your history lessons. You do have interesting perspectives on a variety of subjects however I’m not quite sold on your VJ argument as a career.
VJ’ing is something upper management deem necessary in order to earn their yearly bonus.
In the end…it’s only TV. Not brain surgery or leading an infantry platoon.
Nino November 09, 2010
What make you think that they are going to need videos, or better yet what’s going to happen in the next eight years that hasn’t happen in the last eight year.
Eight years ago you predicted that in the next five years there will be an explosion of demand for videos on the web and a fortune to be made for those who will be ready.
Those five years came and went and nothing happened, eight years went by and still nothing happened. The only fortune made was yours from those who paid you for be ready to make the fortune based on your predictions, so here we go again, more predictions.
If the public hasn’t been watching those cheap videos until now, like it happen to Current TV or CitizeNews, what makes you think that they will watch it in the future.
And here we go again, the same questions and still no answers.
Show us any web site that is buying videos from the VJs you trained.
Show us any web site that gives out regular assignments to the VJ you trained.
Show us any of your trained VJ who is making decent money by selling videos to any web sites.
Show us any TV program generated by the VJs you trained.
Show us any TV program that hire VJs.
Show us any program generated by your travel journalist who took and paid for the TCA
Show us any video generated by the employees of the Travel Channel that you trained.
Lastly, if things are so bad in television like you are describing it, why are people like myself, who you predicted should have been out of business years ago, still in business and doing better than ever.
Why has the TV industry invested, and still investing billions of dollars in upgrading to the latest and the best HD production equipment. Why would they do this if there’s no future.
Why are manufacturers introducing and selling hundreds of new high end products and spending billions in R&D of new products directed solely to the TV industry if there’s no future there.
Why would they do all this if all is needed is a cheap camera and a laptop.
May be all this people don’t know what they are doing, but you, who have never worked in any production whatsoever and have absolutely noting to do with broadcasting know more that they do?
Lastly, if things are so bad in television like you are describing it, why are people like myself, who you predicted should have been out of business years ago, still in business and doing better than ever.
Michael, do you realize that everything you said in the past eight year consisted of “it will” and nothing about “it has”. It easy to sale the future, you don’t have to show anything all you have to do is talk, but showing the present is not as easy, for that you have to show real facts.
“By Rosenblum”
“NBC, ABC and CBS are all training their staffs to shoot and cut their own stuff. All three US nets are putting in desktop editing.”
And once again, Michael, you are talking news.
Nino November 09, 2010
What make you think that they are going to need videos, or better yet what’s going to happen in the next eight years that hasn’t happen in the last eight year.
Eight years ago you predicted that in the next five years there will be an explosion of demand for videos on the web and a fortune to be made for those who will be ready.
Those five years came and went and nothing happened, eight years went by and still nothing happened. The only fortune made was yours from those who paid you for be ready to make the fortune based on your predictions, so here we go again, more predictions.
If the public hasn’t been watching those cheap videos until now, like it happen to Current TV or CitizeNews, what makes you think that they will watch it in the future.
And here we go again, the same questions and still no answers.
Show us any web site that is buying videos from the VJs you trained.
Show us any web site that gives out regular assignments to the VJ you trained.
Show us any of your trained VJ who is making decent money by selling videos to any web sites.
Show us any TV program generated by the VJs you trained.
Show us any TV program that hire VJs.
Show us any program generated by your travel journalist who took and paid for the TCA
Show us any video generated by the employees of the Travel Channel that you trained.
I have many more “show us” but this should keep you busy for awhile.
Michael, do you realize that everything you said in the past eight year consisted of “it will” and nothing about “it has”. It easy to sale the future, you don’t have to show anything all you have to do is talk, but showing the present is not as easy, for that you have to show real facts.
“By Rosenblum”
“NBC, ABC and CBS are all training their staffs to shoot and cut their own stuff. All three US nets are putting in desktop editing.”
“Copy n’ paste previous reply”
“Perhaps Michael you should let those half-a-dozen people left who actually look at your blog know that you are referring to the “TV news business†or news business in general.
TV News makes up less than ten percent of the television and video business and it’s the only part of TV that’s bleeding to death, and it’s a catch 22. They must cut costs (and of course salaries) in order to pay the bills thus causing an exodus of intelligence.”
invited media November 09, 2010
here’s another trend i see in development- nino posts constantly, yet his protege son ain’t nowhere to be found.
i think it’s an encouraging sign…hoping it’s a rare case of the apple falling as far from the tree as possible.
Nino November 09, 2010
Should I copy n’ paste out previous conversation again?
Once again you keep talking television and when asked to clarify what you just said you shift into the web gear.
No kidding that the web is a fraction of TV, there are about 300 channels VS billions of web sites, yet there are only a hand full of web sites that are profitable, most just fade away, should I remind you of the Ebay of VJs.
You always bring up those few sites that brings programming but you intentionally fail to say that those programs were created for television or with conventional methods and used for boths television and the web, bringing as back to the same question.
ONCE AGAIN, SHOW US ANY TV PROGRAMS CREATED BY VJ OR TJ. And while you’re there, show us any successfully known program created by VJ even for the web.
I was trained to do investigative journalism, got out really fast because there were no money to be made there, but one thing that I learn is to use facts and logics.
You did exactly the same thing at the Travel Channel that you are doing now at the BBC. You train their employees to produce video contents claiming the insatiable need for content for the web, iPhone, etc. Carbon copy of what you’ve been saying for the last several days at the BBC. And I’m sure you got paid very well for doing the training. I don’t get the BBC here but I get the Travel Channel and about two years after the supposed training that would create employees generated contents I still don’t see any employees generated content at the Travel Channel, not on TV and not on their web site. So considering that you always sell the future and never talk about the past let’s look at the facts and a the past.
Pat Younge, President of The Travel Channel
Rosenblum getting paid to conduct training for the employees of the Travel Channel
Pat Younge, no longer at the Travel Channel now works for the BBC.
Rosenblum getting paid to conduct training for the employees of the BBC.
And nobody see a disturbing trend here?
I would understand if the Younge/Rosenblum team would have had successful results with the employees training programs at the Travel Channel, but there are absolutely none. So what’s your version of the future now compared to what it was less than two years ago at the Travel Channel.
And you still haven’t touched the fact that eight yeas after you predicted that most freelancers like myself would be out of business, or business has been growing in leaps and bounds fueled by the same television that you still are predicting will be out of business.
Could you at least try to give an explanation of what went wrong with your predictions considering that you keep making the very same predictions over and over again in spite of past failures? Or why CitizenNews failed, or why What’s Your Trip failed and al the other VJ ventures that you were involved.
Don’t you think that you own it to your viewers to give explanations to what went wrong in the past and what’s being done to prevent it again from happening? Or maybe there are no viewers considering that we’ve been doing solo here.
And as far as GE and NBC goes the truth is that GE had no business being in the broadcasting business. If you want we can start an entire conversation about how there conglomerates are the major cause for many of the media downfall.
Michael Rosenblum November 09, 2010
Yes, there are millions of websites and they’re all going to need video. I don’t think the web is going to disappear. And in fact, it is increasingly simple to create video, so I think the web sites will not want for video content. NBC, ABC and CBS are all training their staffs to shoot and cut their own stuff. All three US nets are putting in desktop editing. Craft editors should also start looking for new careers. I don’t think all those networks are wrong. Neither do they. Of course, my relationship with The BBC far predates Pat Younge. I started with The BBC in 1998. As for your casting aspersions on Pat Younge, well, he is the #3 guy at The BBC and his wife is a top exec at Discovery Networks – so all I can say is this is something of an odd career move on your part.
Nino November 08, 2010
“And, as it become apparent that making TV is no longer the ‘craft’ it used to be, the amount of money that any ‘craftsman’ can charge for making video will also collapse.”
Hey Michael, do you remember the movie Groundhog Day?
I figure that instead of writing again and again the very same thing in response to you writing again and again the very same thing I just copy n’ paste one of my previous responses. So below is the post of last month on the very same subject, you can do the same on your posts, copy n’ paste and save a lot of time.
Can you show me any TV shows that has been cutting back? Can you show me any TV show that is using VJs? But please keep the web, news business and TV separate, one day they might consolidate but until then Tv is spending more than ever and there are more programs created than ever before, and none are done by VJ, they all use skilled DPs.
Those few VJs that are actually doing some paid work are confined to the web and in news. Pay is based on value and value is based on skills. VJ make on the average $30K per years, while a freelance working for networks television make between $150K and $300K per year and lately much more.
According to your predictions all of us doing television work should have been out of business about 7 years ago and replaced by VJs. So here we all are, seven years later and business has been going thru the roof. For the last five year every year has been a record breaking year. Last year I logged in a record of 220 days, that’s 80 days more that I wanted to do. Our daily rate for a cameraman/DP and an audio tech with full HD package is $2K per day. Keep into consideration that our daily rates went from $1450 to $2000 just a few years ago with the conversion to HD, we are making considerably more
In addition to the 220 days I gave over 100 days to other crews because of double bookings or multiple cameras assignments. At least 20 assignment last years had to be rescheduled because there were no qualified crews available. During peak periods crews has to be brought in from other areas of the country.
Keep in minds that there are hundreds of VJ around the corner available and wiling to work for a fraction of our rates, why do you think that the networks want no part of them.
2010 will be another record breaking year and from the advanced booking that we have for 2011 looks like the trend will continue.
Now, please keep in mind that in addition of my full size professional cameras I also own six more cameras down he the Canon 5DM2. I offer all of those to my clients for a slightly reduced daily rate should budget be a consideration. 3 out of 220 days last year were done with the less expensive cameras.
One day you’ll learn like networks know all too well do that in the grand scope the cost of a crew is insignificant, but the skills of a crew can make or break a show.
So, where you come up with all these stories about the end of skilled cameramen I have no clue, you’ve been saying this for years and yet everything has been going in the opposite way. I work this business day in and day out and the only place that I hear of all these stuff and cut backs is here on your blog.
Of course if you would say the truth people would not buy whatever you are selling.
“Perhaps Michael you should let those half-a-dozen people left who actually look at your blog know that you are referring to the “TV news business†or news business in general.
TV News makes up less than ten percent of the television and video business and it’s the only part of TV that’s bleeding to death, and it’s a catch 22. They must cut costs (and of course salaries) in order to pay the bills thus causing an exodus of intelligence. Smart people are leaving news and moving on to other profession that can reward them for their intelligence; and knowing the sad state of the industry parents and guidance counselors will guide intelligent kids away from the news business. All is left are those who are not intelligent or smart enough to make it anywhere else, like VJs as example.
Once any industry takes away the intelligence factor they are doomed.
As far as the rest of the television business goes is doing better than ever and they are rewarding skills. There’s a critical shortage of skilled cameraman (actually referred to as DP, Director of Photography of simply photographers) as most DP as hand picking who they want to work for, with priority of course those client who are paying the most.
BTW, Cameramen are usually referred to those who operate a hard cameras at sports or similar events.
A TV or Video DP do not operate toy cameras made for unintelligent people who do not understand what it take to create technically perfect images. Full size cameras are what networks and clients require for most shows.
And to place things in proper prospective, in one day an experience DP make as much as an average VJ makes in one month.
Skills are more in demand today than ever before, all it takes is intelligence, something in very short supply today.”
Michael Rosenblum November 09, 2010
Nino
If you want to move forward and escape from the endless Groundhog Day conversation, then you have to realize that the world of video has changed. Television now represents only a part of the spectrum of demand for video content. Over time, that percentage will become increasingly smaller, and I believe, more and more difficult to differentiate. That prediction, however, is unimportant. What is important is that quite literally millions of people who had, until now, never made video and never even considered making video, are starting to make it. They are posting it, for the most part, online.
Websites are increasing the amount of video that they put up. They will continue to do so.
Places like The BBC are training their staff to make video to feed this almost insatiable demand for video – online, on iPhones, on iPads. The on air demand for video has not changed – as the number of channels (for the BBC at least) has not changed – but suddenly (and at a time of economic pressure to cut costs), The BBC, NBC, ABC, Time Magazine, The New York Times, Department stores, real estate agencies, car sales, and everyone else needs video. They need video that is good, fast, efficient and cheap. Where is it going to come from?
It is, for the most part, going to come from a whole new generation of people who have never made video before. And they need to be trained.
Whether its for your own website or for someone else, the volume of video online is exploding like nothing else has ever done before. From next to nothing 5 years ago to 28 billions videos and climbing. Average people add 24 hours of video to the web every minute. There is no end to this in sight.
What is the future for conventional television?
In point of fact, no one knows. But most people who think about this think it is going to be a radically different business. It is not for nothing that GE just sold NBC. The folks who run GE are far from stupid. There are rumors that ABC is also on the block. Nothing is going to be the same. Where it will all shake down, no one knows. But one thing we do know for certain is that video which was once made by a few thousand people is now being made every day by, quite literally, billions.